The Expiration Date: When Does Collapse Become Impossible to Survive?

Science has answers.

Photo by Matt Palmer on Unsplash

Prepping has gone mainstream.

It feels like everyone’s into survivalism now, and I get it. Even progressive journalists like George Monbiot are storing dry food now. Prepping is good for you. It’s even better to prep for others, whether it’s a community or just your family. But part of prepping means answering an essential question.

When does prepping end?

In my view, prepping means a lot more than just gathering supplies and packing a bugout bag. It even means more than growing your own food or learning how to use a police scanner. It means more than rain harvesters and dew catchers. All of this falls into the category of necessary and beneficial.

It’s still not enough.

So, I’m prefacing this article. I’m into prepping. But if you’re going to prep, you also need a clear head about the future. That means reading the grimmest studies and understanding the future. I mean really understanding it.

The second version of this article does something I avoided the first time around. It offers an expiration date for humanity. Honestly, I find it helpful, even soothing, to have one anchor in this sea of uncertainty.

It’s rare to find someone willing to paint a vivid portrait of the future. But we need it, so we can do more than just prepare our homesteads. We need to prepare our minds, and I guess our hearts (whatever that means). I’m also spending a little more time focusing on the mental health implications, because the full truth is… heavy. And yet, when you finally understand what some of us get now, everything will make sense—including the Trump administration’s current moves. They’re doing so much more than installing a fascist government to take over the world.

They’re prepping.

Mark Lynas does a pretty great job in Our Final Warning explaining what to expect. But after the first version of this article, someone recommended Racing to Extinction, by a retired biologist named Lyle Lewis, who worked for the U.S. Department of the Interior. I would also recommend Nomad Century by Gaia Vince, Hothouse Earth by Bill McGuire, and An Inconvenient Apocalypse by Wes Jackson and Robert Jensen. You can always throw The Uninhabitable Earth in there. Then there’s the growing pile of climate studies telling us that scientists have vastly underestimated the pace and velocity of the climate crisis. And finally, I would recommend this New York Times article about what Elon Musk has done.

Musk sometimes refers to people he holds in contempt as “NPCs,” videogame speak for characters who aren’t controlled by players and thus have no agency… As he told Joe Rogan this year, “The fundamental weakness of Western civilization is empathy,” referring to the emotion as a “bug” in our system.

It’s a short little piece, and it only scratches the surface of what’s going on—but it’s an important scratch. The real story behind Musk and DOGE isn’t the one making headlines. Basically, the richest man in the world and his elite friends, often working quietly in the background, have decided it’s time to pull life support from the rest of humanity. If you’re collapse aware, this devastating cruelty at least makes sense. As I wrote a few months ago, the billionaires are collapse aware. And as Naomi Klein recently explained here, they think about the end of the world all the time. They’re obsessed with it, and they want it to happen.

Over the last few years, more climate scientists and more studies have made it clear that we’re going to see 2C or even 3C of global warming by the 2050s. The original climate models we were fed ten or 20 years ago were overly optimistic and wildly inaccurate. In fact, according to one model, my daughter could see 4C of warming on this planet before she’s old enough to retire (by today’s standards). And yet, it’s still hard to envision. It’s still fuzzy.

Recently, I finished Racing to Extinction, an underrated book by a retired biologist named Lyle Lewis who worked for the U.S. Department of the Interior. A couple of readers recommended this book after the first version of this article. He’s not afraid to give us an expiration date. Check it out:

Humanity will soon vanish from Earth. It’s no longer a matter of it, but when. My current over-under on human extinction is 2055—32 years. A theoretical bet on the over means you believe some humans will still be present on the planet after 2055. Conversely, a bet on the under means we will be entirely absent prior to 2055… We aren’t a mistake. Homo sapiens is an evolutionary dead end. The question isn’t whether we will soon be absent from the planet, but what Earth will look likw when the evolutionary process kickstarts itself after our departure. At minimum, microbes will still be here…

So, there you have it.

This is what some of us have been waiting to hear at the end of every climate report that talks in honest terms about 3-4C of warming, combined with the impact of overshoot and global warfare that would make Hitler blush.

That’s a firm worst-case scenario. Even if we don’t go extinct, by 2055 humans will probably be living a lot like the mice in John Calhoun’s failed utopias—the beautiful ones who stay away from each other. In fact, that’s the only real recommendation Lewis makes in terms of survival.

Avoid conflict for as long as possible.

So, humans will be largely gone by the 2050s. By the way, that’s an amusing spin on the net zero future we’ve been sold. Yes, indeed, humans will achieve net zero by 2050 because we won’t be here anymore. The conspiracy theorist in me believes that might’ve been the truth behind that big lie.

Now, what if it takes a little longer?

Well…

We’re going to skip past 1-2C and dive straight into a 3C world, one that humans have never experienced. By most measures, we’re already living in a 1-2C world. That means most of us now deal with a constant, perennial threat of storms, floods, blizzards, fires, heat waves, droughts, disease, and shortages. Our governments are yanking up the social safety nets and leaving us to fend for ourselves. We can probably survive a 2C world by planning and forming teams wherever we can. But what happens after that?

What happens above 2C?

What happens in a 2-3C world?

We could hit 3C of warming by the 2050s or sooner. We’ll probably hit 2.5C in the mid-2040s, and it’s all going to get significantly worse.

Archaeological evidence tells us this world, last seen 4 million years ago, made the Arctic region so temperate that the very first beavers, rabbits, bears, and deer thrived a thousand miles above the current treeline on Ellesmere Island, at the northernmost edge of Canada, just west of Greenland. Back then, it was a cool breezy 57 degrees Fahrenheit during growing season.

So if you’re looking for collapse real estate…

Four million years ago, during the Pliocene, there was basically no Antarctic Ice Sheet. There was no ice on Greenland.

To put things into perspective:

As scientists estimate in 3 Degrees More, “we have probably already added enough CO2 to the atmosphere to prevent the next ice age, which would otherwise be due in 50,000 years.” At 3C, “the natural ice age cycles of the next half million years will probably not occur.” Dangerous heat waves will begin in May and last through September. (We’re already seeing it.) These heat waves will start to exhaust our power grids by the 2040s, if not sooner. One 2023 study predicted that a grid outage in a city like Phoenix would mean “more than 50 percent of the total urban population” would require emergency medical care. Even cities like Atlanta could see at least 3 percent of their residents hospitalized.

In a 3C world, a billion people around the planet “would be exposed to temperatures that exceed the workability threshold, where it becomes impossible to safely work outside artificially cooled environments, even in the shade.”

That’s right, a billion people.

Large parts of Africa and the Middle East will become uninhabitable. Nobody will be able to grow food or raise livestock there, or even tend their crops because of the extreme heat. Large parts of the U.S. and Europe will look and feel more like Central America, North Africa, and the Middle East. As I recently wrote, the odds of another Dust Bowl become virtually locked in, not just for the plains but for half the country, and it’s likely that the Dust Bowl conditions would become permanent. That means a 40-50 percent drop in crop production.

As for floods, a 3C world would mean quadruple what we’ve seen over the last decade, causing 10 times more damage and killing 20,000 people a year, with hundreds of thousands more left homeless.

A 3C world sees the collapse of the insurance industry.

It’s a certainty.

As Lynas says, “Researchers now suggest that we’ll be back in the Pliocene as soon as 2030 with current emission trends.” Here’s where he hits the nail on the head: “Forget survivalist fantasies. Nowhere will be safe—countries that still grow enough food might find themselves ruled by latter-day eco-fascists, as unscrupulous politicians stir up hate and division in order to cement their power behind rigidly policed national boundaries.” Whew, boy.

As Lynas so aptly predicted, our leaders have already started to respond by cutting international aid, fighting over borders, and hoarding resources from their own citizens. The recent budget turmoil, with hundreds of billions in expected cuts to Medicare and Medicaid, exemplifies a government that plans to pour every penny into tech and military spending. They’re gearing up to try and annex Canada and Greenland, while culling their “weak.”

Don’t forget diseases. Between pandemics, super bugs, and weakened immune systems… we’ll have our hands full.

Going to the hospital?

Enjoy the wait.

At 3C, the average American will be living in conditions they’ve written off as “the third world.” We’re only pushing 2C now, and look around. We got there so much faster than even the doomiest of us predicted.

So, that’s the 2040s.

What happens in a 3-4C world?

A 4C world doesn’t result in human extinction, according to Lynas. But it turns ordinary conveniences like air conditioning, appliances, and running water into luxuries. We’re in Soylent Green territory here.

(You should watch it…)

The problems that sheltered suburban Americans could once ignore will become theirs to deal with. The rest of the world, those still alive, will feel no sympathy. We’re talking about the Dust Bowl and Great Depression becoming everpresent realities, with no light at the end of the tunnel.

The elite will still be partying.

They might also find the support and resources to begin geoengineering the atmosphere, without any approval or mandate from world governments. One startup called Make Sunsets has already started "launching balloons filled with sulfur dioxide (SO2) seeking to geoengineer the planet and generate cooling credits to sell." Mexico has banned them, and the EPA has finally started to demand answers. Honestly, nobody really knows what geoengineering via sulfur dioxide would do. But we can count on unregulated tech firms trying to do it, and making tons of money in the process.

Cities like New York will see deadly heat for 50 days a year, and places like Jakarta will see deadly heat every single day. That's when large parts of the world, basically anywhere within the 30-degree latitude line of the equator, become truly uninhabitable, and the refugee problem really hits. It will be so hot that mosquitoes migrate north, bringing malaria and dengue and yellow fever with them. Cases of mosquito-borne illness are already increasing in North America. By the late 2050s and 60s, they’ll pose steady threats.

At 4C, megafires start.

As for hurricanes, we start seeing our first genuine Category 6 storms and “monster typhoons.” Meteorologists will have no choice but to expand their rating system to accommodate these giants. As for crop failures, not only do you see them on a more regular basis, they start edging up to 80 percent drops in production. Dust Bowl years become the new normal.

What a time…

What happens in a 4-5C world?

You could still probably prep your way through a 3-4C world with some luck, although you face higher odds of death by fascist idiots. In the worlds above 3C, the real threats don't come your neighbors. They come from corrupt governments and local authorities getting in your way and commandeering your stuff. At 4-5C, it’s pretty much game over.

In the 2070s and 2080s, we cross 4C and start heading toward 5C. Babies born this decade will be hitting middle age.

Here’s when you can kiss global industrial civilization goodbye. Studies reviewed by Lynas tend to agree that crop failure becomes so overwhelming that most countries stop trading food. Governments, already in tatters, fall apart completely. Say goodbye to presidents.

Say hello to warlords.

About half the world’s population faces malnutrition and starvation—a conservative estimate. On every continent, the highlands and mountaintops become the only place where you might grow food, the only place to stay cool enough to survive.

As Lynas writes,

At five degrees we are seeing humanity clinging on in only small refuges, surrounded on all sides by spreading deserts, forests in flame and rising seas. We have lost nine-tenths of our habitable planetary space… The rest of our planet is a silent cemetery, suitable for the dead but no longer with much to offer the living.

So, that’s it.

We don’t prep our way through a 5C world. Unless we can hide in the mountains, we won’t be growing much of anything. We won’t be going to stores. We won’t be sustaining communities. We don’t come back from this. Rainforests shift to the Arctic, assuming anything can adapt fast enough to survive.

That’s a big if.

What happens in a 5-6C world?

It’s plausible. It could happen. We could break 5-6C by the end of the century. If that happens, almost nothing survives. It would threaten to kill the planet’s ability to sustain most kinds of life, and it would take a million years to start recovering. We could very well turn this place into Mars.

Elon Musk wouldn’t have to go anywhere.

He could just stay put.

So, what now?

That’s a good question, and it’s entirely appropriate.

We have two scenarios, one where collapse and extinction happen at a moderate pace and humans conclude their time on this earth by the 2080s or so. Tipping points and mega disasters will accelerate the end in other parts of the world, and we could be facing extinction, for all practical terms by the 2050s.

It’s going to look weird. Events like the collapse of AMOC could plunge Europe into an ice age. Does that cancel out the warming? I don’t know. What I do know is that the collapse of ocean currents isn’t going to help with food production or grid stability. It’s like asking someone if they want to be locked in an oven or a freezer. Both of them are going to kill you.

Lyle Lewis echoes other writers on collapse when he talks about the stages of grief. If you’re just now learning all of this, you’re going to experience intense feelings of anxiety, grief, and despair. That won’t last forever. Eventually, you can reach the same stage many of us have embraced—acceptance.

It’s a weird thing to feel a sense of acceptance about the end of the world. Civilizations have collapsed before, but that’s nothing compared to now. This time, humans are going to kill everything on this planet except for microbes, and maybe some rats or other small mammals.

In the next few decades…

This might sound funny, but part of me almost feels relieved. It was already overwhelming to try and plan for things like sending kids to college or retirement on a dying planet. Now I feel like Javier Bardem at the end of No Country for Old Men: “Honestly, I wouldn’t worry about it.”

By 2055, my daughter will be in her mid 30s, and she’ll see the functional extinction of her race. If we aren’t gone completely, we’ll be an endangered species. How much sense does it make for her to think about going to college, starting a career, getting married, raising a family, and retiring?

It makes no sense at all.

The only thing that makes sense is what Lewis tells us, something I’ve written about before. Balance mindfulness with awareness.

I would add:

Live now.

Don’t make the problem worse with reckless wish fulfillment, but stop stressing. If you want to prep, then prep. Learn how to use your canning machine. Make whatever plans you can to extend your life for as long as you think you’ll find meaning in it. Don’t forget to enjoy the good moments now, because those are going to become fewer and further between. It makes no sense to stress out over retirement, at least for me, and it also makes no sense to spend all day wallowing in bed.

Balance and moderation matter more than ever. Now, we have to juggle collapse or even extinction by the 2050s with the fact that it’s not here yet, and we still don’t know when collapse will come for us on a personal level.

In the end, know that every year might be your last to do something important, something you find meaningful.

So, get on it.

Wouldn't you rather know?

They say ignorance is bliss.

I disagree.

Ignorance isn't bliss. It's anxiety. It's dread. It's sleepless nights. It's knowing that something awful is coming and not knowing what. It's trying to get straight answers and, instead, only hearing condescending lies that don't do anything but make you regret asking questions in the first place.

Ignorance is lonely.

So, I feel better knowing this timeline. It really helps you stack your priorities, and it provides a coherent narrative for all the nonsensical, deranged politics we’re seeing now. They’re downright apocalyptic.

Back in April, Charles Bastille at Ruminato published a sobering report on “the destruction of America,” detailing how Trump and his team had already completed roughly 60-90 percent of Project 2025’s objectives. What they don’t say, but I will, is that this plan follows a cold logic when you approach it from the perspective of CEOs, billionaires, and other oligarchs who fit Naomi Klein’s profile. While they sell denial to their MAGA base, they themselves understand perfectly what they’ve done and what the future holds for this planet.

That explains the latest budget bill. It explains the end of USAID and total dismantling of our public infrastructure. It explains why RFK Jr. and Dr. Oz are doing even less than the last administration on threats like measles and H5N1 bird flu. It explains the tariffs and the reckless bravado with China. It explains their plans regarding Greenland and Canada.

If you know humans have until 2055, and you’re among the handful of greedy primates who brought about their end, then everything else falls into place. It fits that you would further isolate yourself from humanity, call empathy a weakness, abandon the ones you’ve doomed, and start hoarding resources like never before, while abusing every mood-altering substance you can find.

That’s the psychopath’s playbook.

All of this feeds into something that’s been on our radar screen for a while. This is what Douglas Rushkoff warned us about back in 2019. This is the elites pulling up the ladder and leaving us all to fend for ourselves, as they deprive the world of resources and pour everything into increasingly delusional escape fantasies—whether it’s space colonies, robotic saviors, or bunkers.

We’re not talking about these scenarios to wallow in doom. For practical planning, and our mental health, I think it’s important to have an accurate grasp of where the world is heading so we can brace for it. Whether you send your kids to college, whether you even have kids, how you prepare, whether you prepare, it all depends on clarity. You can’t make good decisions unless you have some grasp of the future, even if it’s going to be a really awful one.

None of this means we should give up. Like John Barry says near the end of his masterful history of the 1918 pandemic, none of us should try to tell each other what to do, what to think, or how to feel about looming doom before we tell the truth. Nobody should try to influence your mindset or decisions before they tell you what's going on. The truth has to come first.

If I had 30 years before human extinction, if I had 5-10 years of a functional grid left, I would like to know so I don’t squander it. I think anyone mature enough to handle the knowledge should know, so they can make good decisions about the time we and our families have left. We deserve the truth.

This is the opposite of nihilism.

Far from a meaningless future, I think we’re in for an incredibly meaningful one, just not a comfortable one. We’re going to have meaning and purpose coming out of our ears, far too much for our brains to handle. Maybe it doesn’t feel like it now, but we’re going to get drowned in the human experience. The good. The bad. The ugly. All of it. Personally, I find the extinction of humans a story worth hanging around for. If nothing else, I want to see how it happens. It’s not a coincidence that so much of our greatest art and literature revolves around tragedy.

I love a good story.