How Not to Prevent a Pandemic

A primer on bird flu.

Grandfailure

Missouri recently reported the first human case of bird flu in the U.S. By that, health officials mean the first person "with no known animal contact." Since then, we’ve learned that two healthcare workers there likely became infected but weren’t tested. According to Helen Branswell at Stat News, “This makes the second time that possible cases… have come to light well after the fact.” And yet, the CDC continues to insist that “the risk to the public remains low.”

This is not how to prevent a pandemic.

As infectious disease expert Michael Mina recently warned, "Given how few people get tested for flu, we have no idea how widespread H5 really is."

You know how these things work...

While Finland rolls out bird flu vaccines to its vulnerable populations, the U.S. has done virtually nothing to prepare, and nothing to respond to the rampant spread on dairy farms. Earlier this year, the USDA announced plans to "identify infected herds and wait for the virus to die out."

The operative word here is wait. If we've learned anything from the current pandemic, it's that viruses don't die out. They evolve. They adapt.

They spread.

Scott Hensley, a microbiologist at the University of Pennsylvania, describes what's happening as "a pandemic unfolding in slow motion." Scores of scientists around the world have expressed everything from deep concern to contempt for how the U.S. has been handling bird flu.

Collectively, we're repeating every single mistake we made with Covid. This time, it's worse. While Covid erupted out of nowhere and went global within a handful of weeks, bird flu has been marching relentlessly through the animal kingdom for years, and it's been near the top of almost every virologist's and epidemiologist's list of likely pandemics.

From Reuters:

Federal surveillance of U.S. dairy cows is currently limited to testing herds before they cross state lines. State testing efforts are inconsistent, while testing of people exposed to sick cattle is scant...

Seth Berkley, a widely respected epidemiologist, told Stat News that it's "shocking to watch the ineptitude" of how public officials in the U.S. are handling the situation.

If anything, American politicians appear to be courting a bird flu pandemic. Delaware is currently legalizing the sale of raw milk. Yes, Democrats voted for it, in an overwhelming majority.

Yes, you can get sick from raw milk.

Studies have found that cats and mice can both catch bird flu from raw milk. A recent study in Emerging Infectious Diseases found that infected milk killed several cats, leading the authors to conclude that raw milk "might potentially transmit infection to other mammals via unpasteurized milk." Another recent study in the New England Journal of Medicine found that not only does raw milk infect mice, but it remains infectious for up to five weeks when it's refrigerated.

On top of that, the recent human cases of bird flu we're seeing in the U.S. happen when someone spills raw milk on themselves, gets milk residue on their hands, handles infected meat, or breathes aerosolized fecal matter. We're also seeing the early signs of airborne respiratory spread.

It's all of the above.

Public health officials and major media outlets have ensured everyone that meat and dairy products remain safe, but they're just guessing. One recent study suggests that the normal pasteurization process isn't enough to kill the virus, and that we should be upping our standards.

People keep asking whether you can catch bird flu from meat products. Yes, you can. That's why we have publications like The Journal of Food Protection, dedicated entirely to, well, protecting our food from dangerous diseases. Very recently, they published a study explaining that if you're going to insist on eating chicken, eggs, and beef, make sure you cook them thoroughly to an internal temperature of 71.1C (160F). Don't eat them raw or even rare.

Fun fact: About 10 percent of American beef products come from culled dairy cows.

We know that other mammals can get sick from eating meat infected with bird flu. Most outbreaks of H5N1 bird flu over the last three decades start with infected raw meat, either handling it or ingesting it. We know for a fact that bears, foxes, seals, sea lions, and dogs have gotten sick and died from bird flu by eating dead birds. As experts tell us about these infections, "we see carnivores...particularly those that are known to scavenge." So if you're wondering if you can catch flu or anything else from consuming raw animal products, the answer is yes. The H5N1 virus doesn't care if you're a fox or a human.

Bird flu viruses routinely adapt to spread between mammals, and that's what we're starting to see over the last year. A study in BMC Veterinary Research found that H5N1 most likely adapted to spread among sea lions in Brazil by October of 2023, causing a massive wave of death. Another study reported in The New York Times found that H5N1 jumped from wild birds to seals and sea lions all around the coast of South America last year. It adapted to spread between mammals, causing another massive die off.

Then it jumped back to birds.

From the NYT:

Bird flu virus taken from the sea animals contained 18 mutations that enabled it to infect and spread among mammals more easily, and enhanced the severity of the disease, the researchers found.

“The sheer number of mutations” is cause for concern, said Dr. Malik Peiris, a virologist and bird flu expert at the University of Hong Kong, who was not involved in the work.

Now bird flu is spreading out of control in dairy cows. If you're wondering whether it's airborne or about to be, the answer is yes. A study in the Journal of General Virology found that H5N1 specifically can now replicate in "bovine airway epithelial cells." The researchers documented "rapid increases in viral genome loads and infectious virus during the first 24 hours post-inoculation." Their discussion confirms that the more practice this virus gets infecting mammals, the better it gets at replicating and shedding in respiratory tracts and airways. Another study in Nature found that H5N1 has started mutating to infect human airways.

In May, high-security biosafety labs (BSL-3) began infecting cows with bird flu to learn more about the virus. According to coverage in Science, researchers there discovered that cow udders house viral receptors similar to birds and humans. While scientists were previously worried about pigs, it turns out that cows are a fantastic breeding ground.

When farm workers first started catching bird flu, they got bad eye infections. That's because "human eyes may be uniquely vulnerable to the strain because they contain the same H5N1 receptor found in ducks and cow udders." That's been slowly changing as the virus starts to show more and more ability to replicate and shed in our airways.

On cue, farmers are now starting to report more respiratory symptoms along with eye infections.

It's happening right in front of us.

As bird flu gains a foothold in mammals and establishes a reservoir in cows, one little gene called BTN3A3 protects the upper and lower respiratory tracts of humans from infection. Researchers at the University of Glasgow Center for Virus Research discovered it last year and published their findings in Nature. The lead author did an interview with Reuters, where he said, "About 50 percent of H5N1 strains circulating globally so far in 2023 are resistant to BTN3A3."

All the pieces of a bird flu pandemic exist, and they're coming together faster and faster. The H5N1 virus found the most vulnerable spot possible, between humans and cows, and it's moving from our eyes to our lungs.

Most of the corporate media coverage has emphasized how "mild" the infections are, just as they've done with Covid since late 2021, which turned out to be a disaster. They're willfully neglecting the lessons of Covid, as well as the 1918 flu. As history shows, that was a bird flu virus as well, with a mild first wave.

Then it evolved.

These bird flus are nothing to mess with. The 1918 flu was so bizarre that doctors misdiagnosed it as a dozen other major diseases. It also caused severe organ and brain damage. We think of the flu as a respiratory virus. Just like Covid, it might attack the lungs at first, but it goes far deeper.

An article in Science News reviews the research on H5N1 outbreaks in wildlife, including the lesions they're finding in the lungs, hearts, livers, kidneys and brains of infected animals. It's causing seizures and paralysis, just like H1N1 did in 1918. This family of viruses "is exceptionally good at making copies of itself inside a variety of cells, including nerve cells." Lucky us, our brains are "covered in birdlike sialic acid proteins." Similar cells line our nasal passages, creating "a direct entry route to the brain from your nose."

You could say we're bird brains.

So we shouldn't just be looking for respiratory symptoms or pink eye. We should also be watching out for neurological signs like disorientation, paralysis, lack of coordination, uncontrolled shaking, and tremors.

This is the disease that our leaders and our media are hoping will simply die out while they focus on campaigning. This is the disease they call mild, referring to ruptured blood vessels as pink eye. They all want to win elections, but none of them want to do their jobs. Ironically enough, this is exactly how American politicians responded to the 1918 flu. Woodrow Wilson's administration completely ignored the virus, even as it closed down entire cities and filled morgues with purple bodies. They didn't care. There was a war going, and it was the only thing that mattered.

A recent piece in Politico reveals just how little our governments are doing to track or control the bird flu outbreaks. According to them, "the federal response is largely focusing on voluntary efforts by farmers," and "testing has covered a mere fraction of the nation's nine million dairy cattle." Most farms still haven't agreed to participate in surveillance.

According to Alexander Tin's notes from a recent conference call with public health agencies, officials don't want to test more. The principal deputy director of the CDC (Nirav Shah), said they have plenty of testing capacity for bird flu, but they're not using it because they're worried about "happening just to pick up a stray amount of virus from their nasal passage..." They're not interested in tracking "someone who's been exposed." During the same call, officials said they didn't want to raise the standards of pasteurization for milk, either.

It could hurt the flavor, they said.

Corporate news outlets continue to push the narrative that our risk of a bird flu pandemic remains low, but that's not how nature works. As one infectious diseases expert, Richard Webby, said back in May, "Had you asked me six weeks ago what the chance was of finding this virus in cows, I would have said none. So it's a completely new event for us."

There's one exception to the ineptitude, and that's Michigan. They're actually trying hard to track and contain the virus. If the rest of the country followed their example, we'd be in better shape.

Since most of our governments won't do anything, we have to protect ourselves and each other. That means the usual, masks and clean air. This time, we also have to start paying attention to fomites again. And given that bird flu has a propensity for airborne spread, and our eyes have bird flu receptors, we should be talking about whether we need goggles as well.

How long does H5N1 last on surfaces?

One disturbing study from 2010 in Environmental Science & Technology found that H5N1 can last for two weeks on glass and steel surfaces at temperatures around 39F (3.9C), and up to two months under even cooler temperatures. A 2022 study in Emerging Infectious Diseases found that H5N1 can last longer than most other flu viruses, up 24-26 hours on plastic surfaces and 3-4.5 hours on human skin. Fortunately, disinfectants with 40 percent alcohol solution killed H5N1 and other flu viruses within 15 seconds.

Studies on other viruses have shown that flu and coronaviruses can last several days or up to several weeks. They last longer on hard surfaces like plastic, glass, and steel than porous surfaces like cardboard.

How long can bird flu last in meat?

It depends. A 2021 study in The Lancet found that the H7N9 strain of highly pathogenic bird flu can survive in raw poultry for up to nine days at -20C degrees and up to four days at 25C degrees.

The H5N1 strain of bird flu lasts much longer in meat. A 2017 study in Applied and Environmental Microbiology found that "tissue type could strongly affect viral survival." H5N1 can survive in muscle tissue (meat) for 100 to 160 days at 4C degrees and 8-14 days at 20C degrees. The virus can survive longer in feathers, up to 240 days at 4C degrees. The authors review previous studies that found H7N1 virus can survive for 135 days in meat at 4C degrees. Other studies of similar viruses found survival lengths of 40-81 days in poultry meat at 0C degrees, 11 to 14 days at 10C degrees, and 2-3 days at 20C degrees.

So we have a good sense that H5N1 lasts for months in the refrigerator, and probably even longer in the freezer. That's not great news for meat lovers, and it puts extra pressure on them to cook their meat properly.

How long can bird flu survive in milk or cheese?

Remember, the study in The New England Journal of Medicine said the virus remains infectious in raw milk for up to five weeks. Also, remember that standard pasteurization can't guarantee the elimination of the virus, but the dairy industry obviously wants us all to keep drinking milk anyway.

As for cheese, my family is sticking with sharp and extra sharp cheddar. Anything aged for several months should be fine.

We're not bothering with meat.

For us, it's not worth the risk.

Some people want to know if it's time to start wiping down groceries again. Well, that doesn't sound weird to me. If you want to make a UVC decontamination box to make life easier, this 2020 article in the Journal of Medical Systems explains how. You can also make disinfectants with alcohol or hypochlorous acid to help with surface transmission. You can read more here. You can also find various online stores that sell HOCl generators, if you want to save a little hassle.

Aaron Collins can help you up your mask game, if you need it.

Anyway, this is the virus we're told not to panic about. Since 2020, H5N1 has led to the death of 50-60 million birds and counting. It's an absolute ecological disaster, unparalleled in scale, brought to us by industrialized agriculture. Our politicians campaign on the promise of listening to science. Then they don't.

They're the real bird brains.

We're the ones listening.

---